Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
July 23, 2020
The Effect of Border Controls on the Risk of COVID-19 Reincursion from International Arrivals
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] Steyn et al. predicted the risk of undetected COVID-19 cases within managed isolation and quarantine facilities and the risk of infectious cases being released into the community using data during a two-week period (June 23 to July 6, 2020) in New Zealand. Under the current 14-day quarantine order, a combination of testing on days 3 and 12, daily symptom checks, and complete isolation…
July 22, 2020
Regional Infoveillance of COVID-19 Case Rates: Analysis of Search-Engine Query Patterns (Preprint)
Cousins et al. found high correlation between regional confirmed case data from the New York Times and Google Trends results 10 days prior in most states (January 21 to April 2, 2020), suggesting that search-engine query patterns may be able to predict case activity while being robust to differences in regional location, population, and date of…
Assessing the Relative Contributions of Healthcare Protocols for Epidemic Control an Example with Network Transmission Model for COVID-19
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Using an individual-based age-structured network model calibrated to a large city in Brazil (population: 300,000), Baumgartner et al. found that the model was more sensitive to interactions across different neighborhoods, suggesting that physical distancing at the city-level is more effective in controlling outbreaks and activities within the same neighborhood could only have…
Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA
Wang et al. built a COVID-19 transmission model for Austin, TX incorporating age-stratified risks, contact patterns, and healthcare system factors and found that a 2 week delay in implementing extensive social distancing measures could accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks, causing shortages in beds and ICU units. School closures did not affect the epidemic curve. Wang…
July 21, 2020
Bidirectional Impact of Imperfect Mask Use on Reproduction Number of COVID-19: A next Generation Matrix Approach
Using a next generation matrix approach, Fisman et al. found that even modest use of imperfect masks reduce COVID-19 transmission, and widespread use may be able to bring R0<1 if it has already been brought close to 1 by other interventions. However, the effect of mask wearing on transmission at a population level is reduced in scenarios…
July 20, 2020
Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 Infection Risk within the Apple/Google Exposure Notification Framework to Inform Quarantine Recommendations
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Wilson et al. constructed a model to estimate the length of quarantine necessary to bring the risk of infection below a given threshold based on the degree of contact with an infected person. The model fits the framework of the Google/Apple Exposure Notification API, in which both the transmitter and the receiver carry Bluetooth-enabled devices that detect their proximity. Wilson et al. (July 19, 2020). Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 Infection…
Impact of Delays on Effectiveness of Contact Tracing Strategies for COVID-19: A Modelling Study
Kretzschmar et al. used a model to demonstrate the relative importance of minimizing delays and maximizing coverage of contact tracing and testing. With a delay of three days or longer in testing and tracing, even complete coverage of contacts was not sufficient to reach R values below 1, which would lead to decline of the epidemic. Kretzschmar…
July 16, 2020
Controlling COVID-19 via Test-Trace-Quarantine
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Using detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region to calibrate an agent-based model, Kerr et al. assessed the requirements for implementing a successful “test-trace-quarantine” strategy and found that if high mask compliance and school closures remain in place, realistic levels of testing (~4,000 routine tests per day) and tracing (50%…
July 15, 2020
Impact of COVID-19 on 2020 US Life Expectancy for the Black and Latino Populations
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Andrasfay and Goldman used COVID-19 projections produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and estimated a reduction in life expectancy at birth due to COVID-19 of greater than 1.5 years for Black and Latino populations, which is one year larger than the reduction for whites. This would be a 30% increase (from 3.6…
COVID-19 Scenarios for the United States
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) team used an SEIR model to estimate trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions at the state level from July 5 to December 31 2020. The model projects that cumulative total deaths across the US could reach 430,494 (288,046–649,582) by December 31st, 2020. Greater than 60% of the deaths projected in this scenario would occur in five states: California,…
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