Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
August 10, 2020
Using a Real-World Network to Model Localized COVID-19 Control Strategies
Firth et al. simulated COVID-19 transmission control strategies in a real-world social network (based on GPS data gathered by tracking 468 individuals in a UK town). Isolation of individuals when they became symptomatic resulted in 66% of the population infected, and primary contact tracing resulted in 48% infected. Secondary contact tracing resulted in 16% of…
August 4, 2020
Determining the Optimal Strategy for Reopening Schools, the Impact of Test and Trace Interventions, and the Risk of Occurrence of a Second COVID-19 Epidemic Wave in the UK: A Modelling Study
Panovska-Griffiths et al. appplied the Covasim model (developed by the Institute for Disease Modeling) to simulate six scenarios for the UK representing a combination of school reopening strategies and contact tracing and testing coverage. Under full re-opening of schools, if 68% of contacts could be traced, 75% of symptomatic individuals would need to be tested (and positives isolated) to prevent a second wave. If…
August 3, 2020
Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Screening Strategies to Permit the Safe Reopening of College Campuses in the United States
Paltiel et al. conducted a modeling study with a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 residential college students including 10 (0.2%) with undetected, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, and found that a symptom-based screening strategy was not sufficient to contain an outbreak in any model scenario. Screening every 1, 2, and 7 days resulted in a cumulative infection of 162, 243 or 1840, respectively, assuming an Rt of 2.5…
Strategies to Reduce the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Re-Introduction from International Travellers
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Clifford et al. estimated that a quarantine period of eight days for air travelers arriving to the UK with a PCR test on day-7 can reduce the number of infectious arrivals released into the community by a median 94% when compared with no quarantine. This reduction is similar to the 99% median reduction achieved by a 14–day quarantine…
July 31, 2020
When Is SARS-CoV-2 in Your Shopping List?
Using agent-based models, Hernandez-Mejia et al. test the effects of various distancing rules and population sizes on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a small- to medium-size supermarket. Policies that require at least 1 meter (3.3 feet) between shoppers and limit the number of shoppers to 15 in a store of about 30 m by 16…
July 29, 2020
Threshold Analyses on Rates of Testing Transmission and Contact for COVID-19 Control in a University Setting
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Zhao et al. simulated epidemic projections of a potential COVID-19 outbreak in a university population of 38,000 persons. They estimated that the threshold number of contacts per person per day was 10 to prevent excess deaths in a scenario with a maximum capacity of trace and test of 50% and a 5.4% chance of transmission rate per contact per day. Further reducing the number of…
July 28, 2020
Using Social Contact Data to Predict and Compare the Impact of Social Distancing Policies with Implications for School Re-Opening
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Using UK social contact data collected in 2010 and Google mobility report data pre- and post-lockdown, Brooks-Pollock et al. estimated an age-adjusted R0 for COVID-19 and relative change in R0 in scenarios including school closures, work closures, and contact tracing. They found that a 65% reduction in work contacts, a 75% reduction in leisure contacts, and a 95% reduction in school contacts reduces R0 to…
July 27, 2020
Simulating the Effect of School Closure during COVID-19 Outbreaks in Ontario, Canada
Using an age-structured agent-based model parametrized with demographics from Ontario, Canada, Abdollahi et al. found that increasing the duration of school closures from 3 to 16 weeks reduced the COVID-19 attack rate by 7%-13% when contacts among school children were restricted by 60-80%. Adding varying degrees of voluntary social isolation among mildly symptomatic persons further reduced…
July 24, 2020
State-Level Impact of Social Distancing and Testing on COVID-19 in the United States
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Using a transmission dynamic model calibrated to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths from March to June, Chiu et al. found that most states were able to achieve R1<1 through stay-at-home orders. However by June 20, only 19 states and the District of Columbia were on track to control COVID-19 at current levels of re-opening,…
July 23, 2020
Delaying the COVID-19 Epidemic in Australia: Evaluating the Effectiveness of International Travel Bans
Adekunle et al. estimated that there was a 79% reduction in imported COVID-19 cases in Australia as of March 2, 2020 and a one-month delay in the COVID-19 outbreak that was attributable to the travel bans imposed on January 24, 2020. Their model results aligned with the observed imported cases in Australia. Adekunle et al. (July 22, 2020). Delaying the COVID-19 Epidemic in Australia:…
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