Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
April 1, 2020
No Evidence for Temperature-Dependence of the COVID-19 Epidemic
Jamil et al examined the relationship between the apparent exponential rate of SARSCoV-2 spread and the Basic Reproductive number of infection (R0) and the average daily temperature across the globe and Chinese provinces. The current distribution of the epidemic infers that SARS-CoV-2 does not behave as a seasonal respiratory virus and negates the speculation that…
March 30, 2020
Evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions against.
Matrajt and Leung used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions lasting six weeks in a middle-sized city in the US. Their results suggest that social distancing interventions can avert cases by 20% and hospitalizations and deaths by 90% as long as the intervention is kept in place, but noted that…
Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months.
Murray et al used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from WHO websites and local and national governments to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state in the US over the next 4 months. The model predicts excess demand for up to 64,175 total beds, 17,309 ICU beds, and 19,481…
A COVID-19 Infection Risk Model for Frontline Health Care Workers
Dy and Rabajante formulated an infection risk model for frontline health care workers in health care facilities that handled COVID -19 patients. From their model, the following were cardinal to safety of the healthcare workers: maximum of three encounters per hour in a 12-hour work shift duration, reduction of each interaction with patients to less…
March 27, 2020
Haplotype networks of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak.
The authors performed whole genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from PCR-positive specimens obtained from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, suggesting that dissemination likely originated from a single introduction event before quarantine was initiated. This study demonstrates the usefulness of haplotype network analysis in identifying potential infection routes. Sekizuka et al. (Mar 27, 2020). Haplotype networks of…
A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coasts
A computational model using data from the US East and West coasts predicts that number of new cases may peak in mid-April and begin to abate by July, and that new cases may be significantly mitigated by increased availability of testing kits. Yeo et al. (Mar 27, 2020). A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression…
March 26, 2020
Epidemiological and Clinical Predictors of COVID-19.
Sun et al share results from 4 prediction models that included rapidly ascertainable clinical findings, clinical tests, demographic variables and exposure risk factors. These could be used to identify individuals with a higher probability for COVID-19 and enable prioritization of PCR-testing and containment efforts. Basic laboratory test results were crucial to prediction models. Sun et…
Estimating the maximum daily number of incident COVID-19 cases manageable by a healthcare system.
The COVID-19 Acute and Intensive Care Resource Tool (CAIC-RT) is capable of estimating the maximum daily number of incident COVID-19 cases that a Healthcare system could manage based on age-adjusted case distribution and severity data from the US. This tool can help planners determine a sustainable threshold for resource utilization, and is available online at…
March 20, 2020
Preliminary evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19, for cases reported globally up to 29 February 2020
Results from this modelling study suggests that warmer weather in the northern hemisphere may only have a moderate effect on the rate of spread of COVID-19, emphasizing the need for further scaling up of containment measures. Bannister-Tyrrell et al. (March 18, 2020). Preliminary evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19, for…
March 19, 2020
Correcting under-reported COVID-19 case numbers
This study suggests that the current reporting of COVID-19 cases in most countries is significantly underestimating the true scale of the pandemic. The lack of testing makes it difficult to estimate the true incidence and fatality rates. The author highlights the importance of publicly accessible real-time data and the relevance of combining global healthcare efforts….
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