Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
April 17, 2020
COVID-19 pandemic: A Hill type mathematical model predicts the US death number and the reopening date
Aboelkassem presents a model to predict the total number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the U.S. and the reopening date. The model estimates that by mid-June or early July the outbreak will sharply decline, and the U.S. will have about 736K confirmed cases and about 41K deaths. The author suggests that late May or…
April 16, 2020
Estimating the final epidemic size for COVID-19 outbreak using improved epidemiological models
Ranjan presents results from three epidemiological models (logistic, SIR and generalized SIER) that were used to make predictions for the final epidemic size of COVID-19 for the most affected countries, indicating that the final epidemic size in the US, Italy, Spain, and Germany could be 1.1, 0.22, 0.24 and 0.19 million respectively. The model also…
April 15, 2020
Human agency and infection rates: implications for social distancing during epidemics
Ramsey (2020) presents a simple theoretical well-mixed populations model for studying impact of social distancing on the spread of COVID -19. The model reports that epidemic growth rate is largely determined by the upper interactivity quantiles of society, and suggests interaction capping approaches rather than overall reductions in interaction. In interactivity capping, the epidemic can…
April 14, 2020
Spatial modeling cannot currently differentiate SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and human distributions on the basis of climate in the United States
Harbert et al used species distribution modeling with US county-level data to evaluate the impact of climate on transmission. While finding slightly more cases in cooler areas, the authors conclude that climate may not play a central role in US viral distribution. Harbert et al. (April 10, 2020). Spatial modeling cannot currently differentiate SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus…
Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States
A global network model was integrated with a local epidemic SEIR model to quantify outbreak dynamics in China and the US. Adopting the latent and infectious periods observed in China (2.5 days and 17.8 days, respectively), the authors predict a nationwide peak of outbreak in the US on May 10, 2020 with 3 million infections….
April 13, 2020
Method for Active Pandemic Curve Management (MAPCM)
A new technique, the method for active pandemic curve management (MAPCM), uses a quasi-open-loop control method to shape the outbreak curve of SARS-CoV-2 spread in a population. This method may make it possible to keep hospitalizations within available healthcare capacity without sacrificing lives while keeping the economy moving. He reports that better results can be…
April 8, 2020
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
Sanche et al performed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high resolution domestic travel and infection data. Models showed that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days and median R0 value of 5.7. This was in contrast to other studies that reported doubling…
COVID-19 pandemic: Impact of lockdown, contact and non-contact transmissions on infection dynamics.
Roy adapted the classical epidemic modelling framework and incorporated a direct person-to-person contact and indirect airborne and fomites-driven transmission parameters to assess the effectiveness of lockdown. To be effective, the models suggest that considerable reduction in both contact and non-contact transmission rates over a long period is required. The author concludes that any premature withdrawal…
The relationship of COVID-19 severity with cardiovascular disease and its traditional risk factors: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
Matsushita et al conducted a systematic review of studies that explored pre-existing CVD and its traditional risk factors as risk factors of severe COVID-19. In addition to older age, they report that male sex, hypertension, diabetes, and CVD were associated in univariate analyses with severe COVID-19. Matsushita et al. (April 2020). The relationship of COVID-19…
April 7, 2020
Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States
Silverman & Washburne show how they repurposed publicly available CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data to estimate the detection rate of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. They noted a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average that correlated with COVID-19 case counts across the states. Silverman & Washburne (Apr 3, 2020). Using ILI surveillance to…
Previous page Next page