Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
March 18, 2020
Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19
Dowd et al used demographic projections of age-specific COVID-19 fatalities in Italy and South Korea to illustrate the effect of age structure on mortality in countries with similar sized populations but different age structures. The study suggests that demographically informed projections will better predict the COVID-19 burden, help inform policy-making and government targeted action (e.g….
March 16, 2020
Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
In order to assess the severity of COVID-19 in China, the authors estimated the risk for death in Wuhan to be as high as 12% and about 1% in other more mildly affected areas. This study indicates that public health interventions, including social distancing and movement restrictions, should be implemented to bring the COVID-19 epidemic…
Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality
In this study, Wilson et al estimate the case-fatality risk for COVID-19 cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Wilson et al. (Mar 16, 2020). Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality. Emerg Infect Dis….
March 13, 2020
Effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing for containment and slowing down a COVID-19 epidemic: a modelling study
The analyses from this modeling study showed that transmissibility and the duration of the latent period relative to the duration of the incubation period have a strong impact on how well the disease can be controlled. While isolation and contact tracing will not fully control the COVID-19 outbreak, the authors emphasize that these are still…
March 9, 2020
Estimating the generation interval for COVID-19 based on symptom onset data
Tapiwa et al and Tindale et al used outbreak data from clusters in Singapore and Tianjin, China to estimate the generation interval from symptom onset data, and estimated incubation periods and serial intervals, respectively. Tapiwa team examined patterns of pre-symptomatic transmission and reproduction number. Tindale et al determined the incubation period and serial interval distribution…
Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions for containing the COVID-19 outbreak: an observational and modelling study
Lai et al used the SEIR model to estimate effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) for containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Their estimates were highly correlated with the reported incidence, and the authors report that without the NPI, the number of COVID-19 cases would likely have been around 67 times higher. The effectiveness of early…
March 4, 2020
COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth
As COVID-19 cases continue to appear in new countries around the world, researchers have begun trying to map the spread of the disease outside of China. In this modelling study, researchers estimate that there were 34 unobserved “founder” patients that likely seeded spread outside China. Li et al (March 3, 2020). COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China:…
February 27, 2020
Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
Kobayashi et al. reviewed key epidemiological problems with using case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) to assess severity of COVID-19. They concluded that division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases should be adjusted by the delay in time from illness onset to reporting. They caution that assessing only…
Case fatality rate of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in China
Qi et al. propose calculating case fatality risk by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases “T” days before, where “T” is an average time period from case confirmation to death. This approach could be used for diseases to calculate CFR before a pandemic ends. Qi et al (Feb 26,…
Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices
Hilton and Keeling, in their estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices, predict that R0 will be highest across Eastern Europe and Japan, and lowest across Africa, Central America and South-Western Asia. They argue that this pattern is largely driven by the demographics; ratio of children to older…
Previous page Next page