Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
April 5, 2021
Dynamic Prioritization of COVID-19 Vaccines When Social Distancing Is Limited for Essential Workers
A modeling study assessing vaccine allocation in the US across priority groups by age and essential worker status determined that prioritizing essential workers could potentially avert between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak) deaths. The authors suggest their findings indicate that optimal vaccine allocation may change over time,…
April 2, 2021
A Comprehensive Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission and Mortality Rates at the County Level in the United States Considering Socio-Demographics, Health Indicators, Mobility Trends and Health Care Infrastructure Attributes
Restricting county-level mobility through a stay-at-home-order (SAHO) with 50% compliance could result in a potential reduction of about 33% in daily COVID-19 cases, according to a modeling study. The models used smartphone mobility data and COVID-19 case and death data from March to August 2020 in 1,752 US counties that had at least 100 recorded…
April 1, 2021
Simulation-Based Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Infections Associated With School Closures and Community-Based Nonpharmaceutical Interventions in Ontario, Canada
An agent-based transmission model calibrated to the population and COVID-19 case numbers observed in Ontario, Canada suggests that changes in case numbers associated with school reopenings were relatively small compared with the changes associated with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Among 1 million simulated individuals from September to October 2020, incident COVID-19 cases without community-based NPIs were…
March 31, 2021
Role of High-Dose Exposure in Transmission Hot Zones as a Driver of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics
A model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission found that community spread may be highly influenced by transmission within “hot zones” characterized by high viral dose exposure, such as indoor settings with poor ventilation such as long-term care facilities, prisons, and food processing plants. The authors conclude that this may indicate that targeting interventions to prevent transmission in…
March 29, 2021
Projected COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States in the Context of the Effectiveness of a Potential Vaccine and Implications for Social Distancing and Face Mask Use
A study developing a dynamic compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York, Texas, Florida, and California showed that relaxing social distancing restrictions to pre-pandemic levels without changing current face mask use would lead to new outbreaks, resulting in 0.8–4 million infections and 15,000–240,000 deaths across these four states over the next 12 months. If face…
Stochastic Sampling Effects Favor Manual over Digital Contact Tracing
A study using a stochastic model to compare manual and digital contact tracing methods found that even if the probability of tracing a contact was equal by each method, manual tracing robustly performed better than digital, after accounting for intrinsic delays and limited scalability associated with manual measures. The authors note that better performance of…
March 17, 2021
A Modeling Study to Inform Screening and Testing Interventions for the Control of SARS-CoV-2 on University Campuses
A model developed for COVID mitigation upon the return of students to school at Emory University concluded that screening at least weekly would be required to ensure substantial case reductions. According to a “susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered” (SEIR) model, monthly and weekly screening among the approximately 30,000 students could reduce SARS-CoV-2 cumulative incidence (CI) by 59% and 87%,…
March 15, 2021
Model-Based Evaluation of School- and Non-School-Related Measures to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic
An age-structured SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to data from the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands suggested that if methods to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) of non-school-based contacts with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still near 1, school-based prevention measures may be beneficial, particularly among older students. The authors provide examples from…
Modeling the Use of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination to Safely Relax Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A transmission model suggested that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be safely relaxed in the US 2-9 months after the initial vaccine rollout, and that vaccinated individuals can begin to relax NPIs sooner than unvaccinated individuals, reducing deaths and peak health system burden. If a vaccination rate of 3 million doses/day were achieved,…
March 10, 2021
Modeling Transmission Dynamics and Effectiveness of Worker Screening Programs for SARS-CoV-2 in Pork Processing Plant
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and screening programs in pork processing facilities during spring 2020 found that the effectiveness of routine PCR-screening at minimizing disease spread was influenced more by testing frequency than delays in results, the initial reproduction number, or background community transmission rates. While testing every three days prevented ~25-…
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