Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
January 15, 2021
Reductions in 2020 US Life Expectancy Due to COVID-19 and the Disproportionate Impact on the Black and Latino Populations
The COVID-19 pandemic could result in to 3 to 4 times larger reductions in life expectancy for Black and Latino populations in the United States compared to the reduction in life expectancy among white people. Estimated reductions in life expectancy were 2.1 in Black and 3.1 years in Latino populations versus 0.7 years in white…
January 13, 2021
Using Excess Deaths and Testing Statistics to Improve Estimates of COVID-19 Mortalities
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study combining historical and current mortality data, a statistical testing model, and an SIR epidemic model found that average excess deaths across the US were 13% higher than reported COVID-19 deaths. In some areas, such as New York City, the number of weekly deaths was about eight times higher than in…
January 12, 2021
Bidirectional Contact Tracing Could Dramatically Improve COVID-19 Control
A modeling study found that bi-directional contact tracing could double the reduction in effective reproductive number (Reff) compared to conventional forward-tracing alone. Bi-directional contact tracing identifies potential infectors of known cases, which could lead to identification of additional cases arising from the potential infectors. The authors also suggest expanding the tracing window from 2-6 days…
January 11, 2021
Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Strategies
A mathematical model developed to quantify the probability of post-quarantine transmission in the context of travel found that SARS-CoV-2 testing on exit could reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortened quarantine by at most one day. The authors tested this approach in a real-world scenario involving offshore oil…
January 8, 2021
Early Transmissibility Assessment of the N501Y Mutant Strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom, October to November 2020
A model incorporating information from genome sequencing and other epidemiological data suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 mutant strain 501Y Variant 2, which became the dominant strain in England in November and December 2020, has an R0 1.75-times that of the 501N variant, meaning that it is 75% more transmissible. Because of limited genetic sequence data, the…
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms
A mathematical model estimates that 59% of all transmission of SARS-CoV-2 comes from asymptomatic cases, suggesting that strategies based on identifying and isolating symptomatic people will not control the pandemic. The model estimates that 35% of SARS-CoV-2 transmission comes from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never become symptomatic. Johansson et al. (Jan 7,…
January 7, 2021
Continued Need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions after COVID-19 Vaccination in Long-Term-Care Facilities
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a model parametrized to long-term care facility populations, high vaccination coverage among staff combined with strong adherence to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) produced the least morbidity and mortality, even among unvaccinated residents. However, in scenarios where adherence to NPIs was waning or low, vaccination among residents had a stronger impact on…
January 5, 2021
How Vaccination and Contact Isolation Might Interact to Suppress Transmission of Covid-19 a DCM Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A dynamic causal model parametrized to the UK population suggests that 15 million people (roughly 50,000 per day) would need to be vaccinated by December 2021 and combined with enhanced contact tracing to achieve a 50% herd immunity threshold. With current rates of contact tracing, 24 million people (36% of the…
December 30, 2020
Chopping the Tail: How Preventing Superspreading Can Help to Maintain COVID-19 Control
Interventions that specifically target superspreading events while partially relaxing social distancing could be a viable alternative to blanket policies, according to a transmission model incorporating a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions parametrized to a variety of settings. Removing the top 1% of individual transmission rates (essentially, superspreading events that connect a single infectious person to large…
December 28, 2020
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
[pre-print; not peer-reviewed] A mathematical modeling study for 3 regions in England estimated that the novel SARS-Co-V2 variant, VOC 202012/01, is 56% (range 50-74%) more transmissible than earlier strains. The analysis incorporated testing data and cell phone data to estimate population movements in order to assess for the contribution of behavioral change as an alternate…
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