Result for
Tag: modeling prediction
December 3, 2020
Awareness-Driven Behavior Changes Can Shift the Shape of Epidemics Away from Peaks and toward Plateaus, Shoulders, and Oscillations
Weitz et al. show that compared to more established models that predict a symmetric peak in COVID-19 cases and deaths, accounting for awareness-driven behavior in models better fit with the asymmetrical peaks observed in actual COVID-19 fatality data, which typically show a plateau after a peak. The authors suggest that their model highlights the potential…
December 2, 2020
A COVID-19 Transmission Model Informing Medication Development and Supply Chain Needs
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modified SEIR model using data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard estimated that 66% of global SARS-CoV-2 cases were asymptomatic; each symptomatic and asymptomatic case could infect 2 and 6 other people, respectively. 10% of cases were super-spreaders, who had a 2-fold higher risk of transmission rate than average….
December 1, 2020
The Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Outbreaks in the United States
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a model parametrized to US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes, vaccination with 40% coverage prioritizing healthcare workers and high-risk individuals and excluding children under 18 was shown to reduce the overall attack proportion from 7.1% to 1.6%. Vaccination also reduced adverse outcomes, with hospitalizations and deaths decreasing by 85% and…
November 30, 2020
Estimated Incidence of COVID-19 Illness and Hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020
A simple probabilistic multiplier model estimating the societal and healthcare burdens of SARS-CoV-2 infections indicated that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. during February 27–September 30, 2020. Laboratory-confirmed infections that were reported were adjusted for potential under-detection based on testing practices and assay…
Which Policies Most Effectively Reduce SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Schools
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An evaluation of policies to reduce in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York City public schools simulated that the greatest reductions in transmission could be achieved through infection control measures (mask wearing, physical distancing, good indoor ventilation, hand washing); further reductions could be achieved through small rotating class cohorts, widespread testing at the…
A Novel COVID-19 Epidemiological Model with Explicit Susceptible and Asymptomatic Isolation Compartments Reveals Unexpected Consequences of Timing Social Distancing
A modeling study of social distancing mandates on SARS-CoV-2 population dynamics indicated that slight delays in implementing social distance protocols did not have a strong effect on the epidemic curve, but did identify a critical window of approximately two weeks in which to implement a mandate to avoid a substantially larger increase in incidence. The…
November 20, 2020
Clinical Outcomes Of A COVID-19 Vaccine: Implementation Over Efficacy
A mathematical model used to estimate the population benefits of a vaccine against COVID-19 finds that factors related to implementation will contribute more to the success of vaccination programs than a vaccine’s efficacy as determined in clinical trials. The model suggests the benefits of a vaccine will decline substantially in the event of manufacturing or…
November 6, 2020
Implication of Backward Contact Tracing in the Presence of Overdispersed Transmission in COVID-19 Outbreaks
Identification of the source of newly-detected SARS-CoV-2 infections (“backward contact tracing”), was found to be a potentially effective outbreak control measure. Endo et. al used a simple branching process model and found that backward tracing was expected to identify a primary case generating 3-10 times more infections than average, which could increase the proportion of…
Evaluation of COVID-19 Testing Strategies for Repopulating College and University Campuses: A Decision Tree Analysis
A decision-tree analysis evaluating five SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies for college students returning to campus found that testing all students upon arrival and then retesting them seven days later identified the greatest number of cases. The five different strategies evaluated were: (1) classifying students with symptoms as having COVID-19, (2) RT-PCR testing for symptomatic students, (3)…
November 3, 2020
Cost–Benefit of Limited Isolation and Testing in COVID-19 Mitigation
A study using an agent-based disease transmission model examined the costs and benefits of replacing lockdowns with a one-step tracing and quarantine strategy. This strategy of closing workplaces when a case is identified, isolating social contacts of the case, and keeping symptomatic individuals in quarantine until symptoms resolve (estimated at 5 days) reduces transmission by…
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