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Tag: modeling
February 4, 2021
Rapid Vaccination and Early Reactive Partial Lockdown Will Minimize Deaths from Emerging Highly Contagious SARS-CoV-2 Variants
A mathematical model calibrated to King County, Washington (but generalizable across states) suggests that across all scenarios of varying vaccine efficacy, rapid vaccination (roughly 8,000 people per day) and lower case thresholds for triggering and relaxing partial lockdown are the two most critical variables that predict lower total numbers of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths….
Epidemiological and Evolutionary Considerations of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Dosing Regimes
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] An immuno-epidemiological model suggests that a one-dose vaccination strategy would likely decrease SARS-CoV-2 infections, but only in the short term. Long-term outcomes, as well as likelihood of viral evolution driven by partial immunity, are mainly driven by relative immune robustness of one versus two doses. Saad-Roy et al. (Feb 3, 2021)….
Vaccine Optimization for COVID-19: Who to Vaccinate First?
An age-stratified mathematical model parameterized with a population with an age distribution based on Washington State suggests that vaccines that are at least 50% effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection could be sufficient to substantially reduce infections and deaths and mitigate the pandemic, assuming roughly 70% vaccination coverage. For low vaccine effectiveness, vaccine allocation to high-risk…
February 2, 2021
Under What Circumstances Could Vaccination Offset the Harm from a More Transmissible Variant of SARS-COV-2 in NYC Trade-Offs Regarding Prioritization and Speed of Vaccination
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A transmission model calibrated to COVID-19 hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths in New York City suggests that the introduction of a 56% more transmissible variant could triple the peak in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths and more than double cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by the end of February 2021. For…
February 1, 2021
The Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Outbreaks in the United States
A modeling study evaluating the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US showed that over a period of 300 days, vaccinating 40% of the population in sequential priority groups reduced the overall attack rate from 9% (without vaccination) to 4.6%, with the greatest relative reductions among those aged 65 and older. Modeled…
January 19, 2021
COVID-19 Dynamics in an Ohio Prison
A retrospective study of the April 2020 outbreak at the Marion Correctional Institution in Ohio showed rapid, widespread infection, with nearly 80% of inmates infected within three weeks of the first reported case. The authors suggest three scenarios that could have given rise to the outbreak: 1) a single initially infected inmate with a basic…
January 12, 2021
Bidirectional Contact Tracing Could Dramatically Improve COVID-19 Control
A modeling study found that bi-directional contact tracing could double the reduction in effective reproductive number (Reff) compared to conventional forward-tracing alone. Bi-directional contact tracing identifies potential infectors of known cases, which could lead to identification of additional cases arising from the potential infectors. The authors also suggest expanding the tracing window from 2-6 days…
January 11, 2021
Optimal COVID-19 Quarantine and Testing Strategies
A mathematical model developed to quantify the probability of post-quarantine transmission in the context of travel found that SARS-CoV-2 testing on exit could reduce the duration of a 14-day quarantine by 50%, while testing on entry shortened quarantine by at most one day. The authors tested this approach in a real-world scenario involving offshore oil…
December 17, 2020
Estimating the Herd Immunity Threshold by Accounting for the Hidden Asymptomatics Using a COVID-19 Specific Model
A model using data from Japan, Italy, France, and Switzerland that incorporates undetected asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection suggests herd immunity could be achieved when active symptomatic patients are 10-25% of the population, much lower than current estimates. Kaushal et al. (Dec 16, 2020). Estimating the Herd Immunity Threshold by Accounting for the Hidden Asymptomatics Using a…
Quantifying the Importance and Location of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Events in Large Metropolitan Areas
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] An agent-based model simulating the New York City and Seattle metropolitan areas from February to June 2020 found 80% of infections were produced by 27% of people, and 10% of events were super-spreading events (SSE). The model found most infections occurred in community and workplace settings prior to NPIs, whereas households…
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