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Tag: modeling
November 23, 2020
The Potential Impact of School Closure Relative to Community-Based Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases in Ontario Canada
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study based on a scenario of one million individuals in Ontario, Canada predicted that school reopening would result in a small change in COVID-19 case numbers among students and teachers in a setting with community-based prevention measures. The model showed that the increase was driven mostly by acquisition in the…
November 16, 2020
Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses
A modeling study that tested scenarios with varying levels of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine efficacy found that a vaccine with prophylactic efficacy of ≥70% could eliminate infection and prevent major outbreaks in scenarios where 80% of the population receives the vaccine. A vaccine with a lower efficacy could still control infection in a scenario with additional reduction…
November 12, 2020
Age Separation Dramatically Reduces COVID-19 Mortality Rate in a Computational Model of a Large Population
Network modeling parametrized to a large population with an Israeli age distribution (more younger people) and an Italian age distribution (more older people) show that age separation could dramatically reduce COVID-19 mortality. Separating older groups (55+ years old) from the rest of the population and compensating for the loss of social connectivity by adding new…
Mobility Network Models of COVID-19 Explain Inequities and Inform Reopening
A transmission model incorporating mobility networks from neighborhoods to locations of interest suggests a small minority of “superspreader” locations, such as full-service restaurants and hotels, account for the majority of infections. The mobility networks are derived from cell phone data from 10 large US metropolitan areas. The model also predicts higher infection rates among lower-income…
November 9, 2020
COVID-19 Wastewater Epidemiology A Model to Estimate Infected Populations
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] A susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model based on composite wastewater samples from sewersheds tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA (a method to estimate the number of infected individuals in a sewershed per day) in South Carolina during June-August 2020 estimated the unreported rate for COVID-19 was 12 times (95%CI 6-19) higher than the rate for confirmed…
October 27, 2020
Effect of Timing of and Adherence to Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Burden in the United States
An agent-based model applied to New York City (NYC), Milwaukee metro area, and Dane County, WI shows that the timing of and adherence to social distancing measures could have major effects on COVID-19 occurrence. Implementing measures in NYC 1 week earlier would have reduced the number of cases by 80%, while a 1-week delay in…
October 8, 2020
Effect of School Closures on Mortality from Coronavirus Disease 2019: Old and New Predictions
Simulations of SARS-CoV-2 spread in the UK using the CovidSim code, with data available in March 2020, show that prompt interventions like school closures and isolation of younger people would reduce peak demand for ICU beds, but result in a greater number of deaths in second and subsequent waves of infections. The authors note this…
September 30, 2020
The Potential Contribution of Face Coverings to the Control of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Schools and Broader Society in the UK a Modelling Study
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study shows that adoption of masks in secondary schools and community settings under current test-trace-isolate (TTI) levels could reduce the size of a second wave in the UK but not prevent it. Under current tracing levels, and at effective mask coverage of 30%, 46% of those with symptomatic infection would…
COVID-19 among People Experiencing Homelessness in England: A Modelling Study
A modeling study found that continuing measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection among people experiencing homelessness would result in a small projected number of cases and deaths (1754 infections, 31 deaths) in the context of a second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population (June 2020 to January 2021). However, in a scenario with no…
Comparison of Infection Control Strategies to Reduce COVID-19 Outbreaks in Homeless Shelters in the United States a Simulation Study
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A microsimulation model calibrated to PCR data from outbreaks in 5 homeless shelters found that while infection control strategies can prevent outbreaks in low-risk settings, they may be unlikely to do so in high-risk settings. The model found that in shelters with low (R0 = 1.5), moderate (R0 = 2.9), and high…
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