Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
August 18, 2020
Data-Driven Development of a Small-Area COVID-19 Vulnerability Index for the United States
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] Using sociodemographic data and 668,428 COVID diagnoses in 4,803 ZIP codes in the US, Amram et al. developed a small area vulnerability index and found that zip codes with higher population density, higher percentage of uninsured, and a higher proportion of nonwhite race and Hispanic ethnicity had higher COVID-19 diagnosis rates. Amram et al. (Aug 18,…
August 17, 2020
The Common Interests of Health Protection and The Economy Evidence from Scenario Calculations Of COVID-19 Containment Policies
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Germany introduced restrictive shutdown measures in March 2020. The reproductive rate (Rt) fell below one in April 14. On April 20th, a gradual loosening of the restrictions was announced. With a lag of two weeks Rt increased again at the beginning of May. Based on these data during the initial shutdown phase, Dorn et al. constructed a simulation model…
Vaccine Optimization for COVID-19 Who to Vaccinate First
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Matrajt et al. used an age-stratified model to determine optimal vaccine allocation for a population with an age distribution based on Washington State. Results suggest that 70% vaccine effectiveness (VE) would be enough to substantially mitigate the ongoing pandemic if at least 50% of the population is optimally vaccinated. For a low vaccination coverage among the population (<20%), the optimal allocation to minimize…
Maximizing Education While Minimizing COVID Risk : Priorities and Pitfalls for Reopening Schools
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Cohen et al. estimated that 5-42% of schools would have at least one person with active COVID-19 on the first day of arrival, depending on the incidence of COVID-19 in the local community. Using the Covasim agent-based model, they estimate that 10-25% of staff and 6-17% of students would be infected in the first three months in a scenario where all students return to in-person…
Widespread Testing Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing a Modeling Analysis of King County WA Data
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Modeling based on King County in Washington State indicates that returning to a level of 75% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions between May 15-July 15 would result in 350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining less than 45% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions was required to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. A combination of increased testing, isolation of symptomatic…
August 14, 2020
Risk of Fomite-Mediated Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Child Daycares Schools and Offices a Modeling Study
[preprint, not peer-reviewed] Kraay et al. used a transmission modeling approach to simulate fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (via contaminated surfaces) under a variety of settings, surface types and cleaning frequencies. Unknown parameter values were derived from other pathogens with similar properties to SARS-CoV-2. Fomite R0 ranged from 2 in low risk venues (offices) to 20 in high-risk settings (daycares) and was higher…
August 13, 2020
The Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission across 130 Countries and Territories
[Preprint, not peer-reviewed] Liu et al. modeled the effectiveness of several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using publicly available data from 178 countries during January 1 – June 22, 2020. They reported 2 NPIs (school closure and internal movement restrictions) were significantly effective and that their effectiveness increased with greater intensity of the intervention. Three NPIs (workplace closure,…
August 12, 2020
Model-Based Projections for COVID-19 Outbreak Size and Student-Days Lost to Closure in Ontario Childcare Centres and Primary Schools
[pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Phillips et al. used an agent-based model to generate predictions of SARS-CoV-2 infection and student-days lost within a hypothetical childcare center with 50 children and educators under existing proposals for childcare and school re-opening in Ontario, Canada. Scenarios with student to teacher ratios of 7:3 with co-habiting students (e.g., siblings) grouped together had the lowest risk (lowest effective reproductive…
August 11, 2020
Projected Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Public Health Interventions to Prevent Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Canada
An age structured agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 in a generalized Canadian setting found that the only intervention scenario that consistently kept hospitals and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths, and eliminated the epidemic was continuation of case detection and contact tracing, continuation of physical distancing, and reimplementation of restrictive measures. Extending school closures had minimal effects in the general population but did reduce transmission in…
Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention
Results of simulation experiments from a computational model developed by Bartsch et al. indicate that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine would need to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and at least 80% to extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing) in the US. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could reduce or eliminate the need for other measures under certain circumstances, such…
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