Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
June 17, 2020
Effectiveness of Isolation, Testing, Contact Tracing, and Physical Distancing on Reducing Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Settings
A mathematical model that stratified individual-level transmission by setting (household, work, school, or other) and used BBC pandemic data from over 40,000 UK participants found that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts would need to be traced to halt the epidemic, in the absence of other measures. These measures would be more likely…
June 16, 2020
Age-Dependent Effects in the Transmission and Control of COVID-19 Epidemics
Davies et al. used mathematical modeling to estimate the age-specific susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and the age-specific fraction of infections that are symptomatic. After fitting their model to data from 6 countries, they estimated that people under the age of 20 years are half as susceptible to infection as those over 20 years of age, 79%…
June 9, 2020
Harnessing Multiple Models for Outbreak Management
Given the disparity in predictions of various models pertaining to COVID-19 disease trajectories and intervention assessments, Shea et al. propose a systematic approach that employs expert elicitation methods and a decision-theoretic framework to minimize bias and account for within- and between- model uncertainty. Shea et al. (May 8, 2020). Harnessing Multiple Models for Outbreak Management….
June 8, 2020
Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Demand for Hospital Services in the UK: A Modelling Study
Davies et al. used a transmission model to estimate that without mitigation measures 23 million cases and 350,000 deaths due to COVID-19 would occur in the UK by December, 2021. School closures, physical distancing, shielding people aged 70 or older, and isolation of symptomatic cases, in combination, was projected to reduce cases and deaths, but repeated periods of phased lockdowns would need to be in place for a large proportion…
June 2, 2020
Modelling Testing Frequencies Required for Early Detection of a SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak on a University Campus
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Martin et al. modeled transmission on a university campus and conclude that a testing frequency of 100% of a campus population per month is required to detect an outbreak when there are fewer than 9 detectable infections. A greater numbers of symptomatic people reporting to health services for testing could help compensate for lower levels of testing. Adding…
June 1, 2020
Using Real-World Contact Networks to Quantify the Effectiveness of Digital Contact Tracing and Isolation Strategies for Covid-19 Pandemic
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Cencetti et al. modeled contact tracing strategies and found that imposing quarantine on contacts with longer exposures at a shorter distance minimized the social cost of quarantine. They found that additional measures needed to be implemented with isolation and tracing to control the outbreak, and that a high level of app adoption was crucial to effectiveness of digital contact tracing. Cencetti et…
The Effectiveness and Perceived Burden of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19 Transmission a Modelling Study with 41 Countries
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Brauner et al. inferred the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions using data in 41 countries. Results suggest a surprisingly large role for schools in COVID-19 transmission (mean reduction in R: 58%. Additional interventions with good effectiveness-burden tradeoffs included limiting gatherings, closing high-risk businesses, and testing persons with symptoms. Closing most nonessential businesses and issuing stay-at-home orders were found to…
May 29, 2020
Causal Impact of Masks Policies Behavior on Early Covid-19 Pandemic in the U.S.
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Chernozhukov et al. constructed counterfactual causal models to evaluate the dynamic impact of various policies on behavioral responses relevant to COVID-19 control. They concluded that these policies (e.g., school, business, and restaurant closures) explain a large fraction of observed changes in social distancing behavior. They estimate that if all policies had been removed on April 1, it would have led to an additional 30– to 200-fold more cases and that nationally mandating face masks would have…
May 28, 2020
Combining Fine-Scale Social Contact Data with Epidemic Modelling Reveals Interactions between Contact Tracing Quarantine Testing and Physical Distancing for Controlling COVID-19
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Firth et al. simulated contract tracing and testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2 using a real-world social network generated from GPS data. They found that tracing 2nd degree contacts (e.g. contacts-of-contacts) was more effective than only tracing 1st degree contacts, but would result in almost one third of the local population being quarantined at…
May 27, 2020
Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 Data Reveals Higher Infection Prevalence Rates and Lower Fatality Rates than Widely Reported
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Neil et al. use a Bayesian technique called “virtual evidence” to test the sensitivity of the infection fatality rate (IFR) to two significant sources of uncertainty: survey quality and COVID-19 death counts. This approach estimates an IFR that is higher than widely reported values. For Santa Clara, CA and Chelsea, MA, the most likely IFR values are 0.3-0.4%. Neil et…
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