Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
May 27, 2020
Inferring the Effective Start Dates of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions during COVID-19 Outbreaks
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Kohanovski et al. applied an SEIR model to infer the effective start dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions and found that they often differ from the official dates. They hypothesize that late effects may be due to low compliance or prolonged time to adopt and organize for a lockdown. Early effects may be due to early adoption of social distancing and similar behavioral adaptations. These results highlight the complex interaction between personal, regional, and…
May 26, 2020
Epidemic Model Guided Machine Learning for COVID-19 Forecasts in the United States
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Zou et al. propose the SuEIR model, which extends the SEIR model by accounting for untested/unreported cases of COVID-19, and train this model using machine learning algorithms. Forecasts from the model predict the peak dates of the outbreak in the US (June 1), New York State (May 10), and California (July 1). Estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) are 2.5 for the US, 3.6 for New York, and 2.2 for California. Results…
A Score-Based Risk Model for Predicting Severe COVID-19 Infection as a Key Component of Lockdown Exit Strategy
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Dagan et al. used retrospective data from all COVID-19 patients diagnosed by April 1, 2020 in a large healthcare organization (n=2,421) to develop a tool that sums over 10 risk factors to predict risk of severe COVID-19 illness or death (basic risk, high risk, very high risk). The risk score had similar sensitivity to detect severe cases of COVID-19 disease…
Visualizing the Invisible: The Effect of Asymptomatic Transmission on the Outbreak Dynamics of COVID-19
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Peirlinck et al. used reported symptomatic case data, antibody seroprevalence studies, a mathematical epidemiology model, and a Bayesian framework to infer the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and predict Rt. This approach found outbreak dynamics to be sensitive to Rt, the ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic populations, and the infectious periods of both groups. For…
May 22, 2020
Impact of Superspreaders on Dissemination and Mitigation of COVID-19
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Sneppen and Simonsen developed an agent-based model that includes superspreaders (persons who spread the disease far more readily than others) to investigated the effect of containment strategies under different models of population mixing. They found that limiting contacts in settings with diffuse social interactions, such as bars, public transport, or lecture halls, was far more effective than limiting the same amount of contact events in the home and work setting. They conclude that limiting…
May 21, 2020
Individual Quarantine versus Active Monitoring of Contacts for the Mitigation of COVID-19: A Modelling Study
Peak et al. modeled the relative efficacy of individual quarantine and active monitoring of contacts to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Modeling simulations suggest that individual quarantine could contain an outbreak of COVID-19 in 4.8 days in 84% of simulations, but only in settings with high intervention performance (e.g., 75% of infected contacts are individually quarantined). The…
Modeling the Effects of Intervention Strategies on COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics
Compared to continuous and intermittent social distancing, Kennedy et al. found that a “stepping-down” strategy was the best long-term strategy to minimize the peak number of active COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. The stepping down strategy modeled cycles of restriction and loosening of social distancing behaviors. A stepping-down strategy also reduced the total required social distancing time by 6.5% compared…
May 20, 2020
Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in California and the U.S. with Reporting Delays
Worden et al. used a model to determine that transmission in many areas in the US may not yet be controlled despite stable or declining case counts. Based on data available on May 9, 2020, the only states to have achieved a threshold at which the epidemic fades out (Rt < 1) are New York, Michigan, New Jersey, and Louisiana. The…
Susceptible Supply Limits the Role of Climate in the Early SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic
Baker et al. applied a climate-dependent epidemic model with parameters drawn from endemic coronaviruses and influenza to understand the potential climate dependence of SARS-CoV-2. The global model provided detailed results for nine cities. Researchers found that the extent to which the population builds immunity remains the fundamental driver of peak incidence during the pandemic phase, while climate plays a modest role in affecting the size of the pandemic outbreak and efficacy of control measures. Baker et…
May 19, 2020
Agent-Based Simulation for Evaluation of Contact-Tracing Policies Against the Spread of SARS-CoV-2
Bicher et al. developed an agent-base model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Austria that incorporates information about the disease course, contact networks(households, workplaces, schools), and infection control policies (lock down, contact tracing). The authors found that individual contact tracing (compared to household-level or workplace-level contact tracing) was the most effective policy, and could result in an81%…
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