Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
June 25, 2020
Modeling the Covid-19 Pandemic Response of the US States
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Neofotistos and Kaxiras characterized the US’s pandemic response at the state level using a multi-wave model, and classified states into three classes. The District of Columbia and 19 other states are classified as declining, where several smaller waves of infection follow a large initial wave. Thirteen states (one of which is Washington State) are classified as stationary, where an initial…
A Model of COVID-19 Transmission and Control on University Campuses
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a transmission model based on Emory University (a medium-size, private university), Lopman et al. found that monthly and weekly screening for SARS-CoV-2 regardless of symptoms can reduce cumulative incidence by 42% and 80% in students, respectively. Testing and quarantining people with symptoms of COVID-19 with a 2-, 4- and 7-day delay following symptom onset results in cumulative incidence reductions of 88%, 79%, and 67%, respectively. Lopman et…
A Mathematical Model Reveals the Influence of Population Heterogeneity on Herd Immunity to SARS-CoV-2
A modeling study found that heterogeneity in contact rates among population groups can significantly affect the overall level of disease-induced immunity to SARS-CoV-2 that develops in the population. Britton et al. estimate that if R0 = 2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity, then the disease-induced herd immunity level can be around 43%, which is substantially less than the classical herd immunity level of 60%…
June 24, 2020
COVID-19 Lockdown: If, When, and How
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Moyorga et al. evaluated the impact of different timings and lengths of lockdown periods under scenarios using different values of R0, the basic reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2. They found that the timing for the lockdown has a large effect on ICU usage and fatalities. As R0 increases, an earlier lockdown is needed to control the outbreak, while in lower R0 scenarios later lockdowns are…
The End of Social Confinement and COVID-19 Re-Emergence Risk
Results from a stochastic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission developed by Lopez et al. suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for a minimum of 60 days, followed by a gradual reintroduction of the workforce. The authors found that social distancing, face masks, gloves and other individual protection measures have a massive impact in reducing the current…
June 23, 2020
A Simplified Math Approach to Predict ICU Beds and Mortality Rate for Hospital Emergency Planning under Covid-19 Pandemic
Manca et al. present a tool based on a simple model that can be used by physicians and decision makers to forecast bed allocation, residence time, doubling time, dates at which thresholds are exceeded, and other key indicators. Manca et al. (Sept 2020). A Simplified Math Approach to Predict ICU Beds and Mortality Rate for…
Characterizing Super-Spreading Events and Age-Specific Infectivity of COVID-19 Transmission in Georgia USA
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Lau et al. use surveillance, geolocation, and aggregate mobility data from five counties in Georgia (US) to estimate unobserved parameters, including date of infection and transmission pathway. They estimate R0 to be 2.88 (95%CI 1.85, 4.9) before a state-wide shelter-in-place order, and <1 two weeks after the order. They estimate that 2% of cases may have…
June 22, 2020
Global, Regional, and National Estimates of the Population at Increased Risk of Severe COVID-19 Due to Underlying Health Conditions in 2020: A Modelling Study
Clark et al. used prevalence data from two large multi–morbidity studies and estimated that 1.7 billion (uncertainty interval (UI) 1.0–2.4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying health condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19. The increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and…
June 18, 2020
Disease and Healthcare Burden of COVID-19 in the United States
Miller et al. projected the cumulative disease burden from COVID-19 at the US county level using age-specific mortality patterns and assuming 20% of the population of each county acquires infection. Comparing burden with hospital capacity, the investigators observed that per capita burden of disease and relative healthcare system demand may be higher in rural areas,…
The Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce COVID-19 Transmission in a Large Urban Jail
[pre-print, not peer reviewed] Malloy et al. used a stochastic dynamic transmission model to estimate various mitigation strategies in response to a COVID-19 outbreak in a large urban US jail among staff and prisoners. They found that reducing population, single celling, and testing asymptomatic persons could prevent approximately 83% of projected cases and hospitalizations and 89% of deaths over 83 days. Malloy et al. (June 18, 2020). The Effectiveness…
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