Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
May 7, 2020
Geospatially Referenced Demographic Agent-Based Modeling of SARS-CoV-2-Infection (COVID-19) Dynamics and Mitigation Effects in a Real-World Community
Adler et al. address limitations of compartmental deterministic models, including their limited ability make predictions for specific locations, points in time, or demographic groups, and to capture chance (“stochastic”) events, which is needed to estimate the probability of a second wave of transmission. The GERDA-1 model is a stochastic, geospatially-referenced and demography-specific agent-based model that can predict infection dynamics for specific subpopulations under a variety of scenarios (e.g.,…
May 5, 2020
Mathematical Assessment of the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Curtailing the 2019 Novel Coronavirus
Ngonghala et al. predict that use of face masks with efficacy ≥ 70% (e.g. surgical masks) could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 80% of the U.S. residents use such masks in public consistently. The use of lower–efficacy masks (e.g. cloth masks with <30% efficacy) could still lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 cases, but would not lead…
COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns
An agent-based simulation (FRED – Framework for Reconstructing Epidemic Dynamics) was used to model the incidence of COVID-19 in King County, WA in a variety of scenarios including case isolation at home, school closure, and social distancing. While non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were effective in flattening the curve, any relaxation of social distancing strategies yielded a second wave. …
May 4, 2020
The Impact of Social Distancing on COVID19 Spread State of Georgia Case Study
Keskinocak et al. develop an agent-based simulation model populated using COVID-19 specific parameters and data from Georgia on agent’s interactions and demographics. The simulation covered a 6-month period and tested different social distancing scenarios and a combination of shelter-in-place and voluntary quarantine with varying timelines and compliance levels. The combined interventions of shelter-in-place followed by voluntary quarantine both delayed…
CovidCounties – an Interactive Real-Time Tracker of the COVID-19 Pandemic at the Level of US Counties
Arneson et al. report on the development of CovidCounties.org, an interactive web-based application that depicts daily disease trends at the US county level. Accompanying the application is a manually curated data set of all major public policy actions at the state level. Data for the website was primarily derived from The New York Times, the US…
May 1, 2020
Impact of virus testing on COVID-19 case fatality rate: estimate using a fixed-effects model
Terriau et al. report that a strategy of widespread screening for COVID-19 infection using RT-PCR and focusing on asymptomatic as well as symptomatic individuals could significantly decrease case-fatality ratios in France. They estimate 1 life would be saved for each additional 1000 screening tests of COVID-19 infection. The authors say their analysis supports implementation of…
Modeling Serological Testing to Inform Relaxation of Social Distancing for COVID-19 Control
This study uses a disease transmission model to compare deaths and critical care admissions in scenarios where social distancing measures are preferentially relaxed for members of the US population who are seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. Such strategies would rely on serological tests correctly identifying individuals who are protected against infection. Implementing a strategy of serological testing…
April 30, 2020
A deeper look at COVID-19 CFR: health care impact and roots of discrepancy
This modeling study quantifies the impact of intensive care on critical cases by comparing the case fatality among those who did and did not receive intensive care. Findings show that the chance of survival among non-ICU receivers is less than half of ICU receivers (~24% vs ~60%). Dehkordi et al. (Apr 30, 2020). A deeper…
April 29, 2020
Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19
Grimm et al propose an extension of the SEIR model to enable analysis of commonly used measures of epidemic control. The model allows for different infectiousness parameters within and across groups, different asymptomatic, hospitalization, and lethality rates, as well as different take-up rates of tracing apps. It analyzes the interplay of group-specific protection with a…
Real-time time-series modelling for prediction of COVID-19 spread and intervention assessment
Rashidi et al introduce a unified platform which integrates visualization capabilities with advanced statistical methods for predicting the virus spread in the short run, using real-time data. The platform is backed up by advanced time series models to capture any possible non-linearity in the data which is enhanced by the capability of measuring the expected…
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