Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
May 19, 2020
Empirical Model of Spring 2020 Decrease in Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in King County Washington
The author estimates that the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in King County will decrease by 50% every 24.5 days (95% CI: 21.2 -28.8). Using this empirical model, the predicted number of daily incidentCOVID-19 cases in King County will be40 cases by May 24,and 20 cases by June 18, 2020. Roach. (May18,2020). Empirical Model…
May 18, 2020
Strategic Release of Lockdowns in a COVID Infection Model
Zhang implemented SIR models to determine the earliest time of a multi-phased release of the population from lockdown restrictions for two states, Illinois and New York, constrained by a specified threshold on the subsequent peaks of infection. If the population under lockdown is to be released in equal sized batches, then it is prudent to wait for a substantial decrease…
Covasim an Agent-Based Model of COVID-19 Dynamics and Interventions
The COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator (Covasim), which has been applied world-wide to examine disease dynamics and policy options, can be used to project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs in the pandemic COVID-19. Covasim accounts for demographic information, realistic transmission networks in different social layers, age-specific disease outcomes, and intrahost viral dynamics. It also supports an extensive set of…
Relaxing Lockdown Measures in Epidemic Outbreaks Using Selective Socio-Economic Containment with Uncertainty
Albi et al. used an SIR-type compartmental model with a social structure modified with appropriate feedback controls to assess the impact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in relation to the resumption of SARS-CoV–2 spread. This model generates simulations that are in agreement with the current epidemic scenarios in countries including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. The inclusion of…
May 15, 2020
Time Is of the Essence Impact of Delays on Effectiveness of Contact Tracing for COVID-19
Researchers modeled the impact of delays in contact tracing strategies (CTS) and found that testing delay (time between onset of symptoms to testing and diagnosis) could seriously attenuate any contact tracing efforts. A testing delay of 3 days would require contacts to be traced within 1 day and with 80% coverage to keep the effective reproduction number (R) below…
May 13, 2020
The Real Time Effective Reproductive Number for COVID-19 in the United States
Keegan et al. compared the reproductive number (Rt) calculated between two methods, the Wallinga and Teunis (WT) method (forward-looking) and the Cori method (backward-looking) to estimate the impact of all combined non-pharmaceutical interventions in US. Results show that most states have been able to reduce the Rt of SARS-CoV-2. However, few states have demonstrated an ability to maintain Rt below a value of 1. The median difference in timing…
Significant Relaxation of SARS-CoV-2-Targeted Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Will Result in Profound Mortality A New York State Modelling Study
Hoffman modeled the effect of unidentified infections, seasonal infectivity, immunity, and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York State. Simulations revealed dramatic infectivity driven by unidentified infections with a peak basic reproductive number of 5.7. Reduction of social distancing by >50% below current levels would result in increased mortality. Endemic infection is likely to occur in the absence of profound sustained…
May 11, 2020
Segmentation and shielding of the most vulnerable members of the population as elements of an exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown
Bunnik et al. found that adoption of a segmenting and shielding strategy to protect older adults and persons with underlying medical conditions could allow for partial exit from COVID-19 lockdown measures in the UK while limiting the risk of an overwhelming second wave of infection. The range of options for relaxation can be increased by maintaining restrictions and intensive routine screening of vulnerable populations and their closest…
Impact of Essential Workers in the Context of Social Distancing for Epidemic Control
Milligan et al. modeled interactions among “essential” workers (EWs) including cashiers, factory employees and healthcare workers, and between essential workers and the general population to assess disease risk during a shelter-in-place scenario. Even with limited exposure to the public, EWs at high interaction workplaces such as manufacturing and food processing facilities, or with high exposure to infected individuals, such as…
May 8, 2020
Estimating The Infection Fatality Rate Among Symptomatic COVID-19 Cases In The United States
Basu et al. fit a statistical model to COVID-19 case fatality rates over time in 116 US counties and estimated the symptomatic infection fatality rate among symptomatic cases (IFR-S) to be 1.3% (95% CI 0.6-2.1%). Estimates by county varied from 0.5% to 3.6% (estimated IFR-S for seasonal flu is 0.1%). The author acknowledges the conservative nature of the estimate and that the overall IFR would be lower, since…
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