Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
April 28, 2020
Estimating population immunity without serological testing
The author proposes a methodology for estimating population immunity to COVID-19 using available mortality data and properties of the SIR model, illustrated using 10 US states’ data. Lesniewski (April 23, 2020). Estimating population immunity without serological testing. Pre-print downloaded Apr 27 from https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.23.20076786
Forecasting the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital demand and deaths for the USA and European Economic Areas
This IHME study describes modeling techniques used to estimate the trajectory of COVID-19 deaths as a function of social distancing, hospital and ICU admissions, length of stay, and ventilator need. Excess medical demand in the US is predicted to peak at 9,079 total beds and 9,356 ICU beds, and ventilator use is predicted to peak…
April 27, 2020
Influenza-Negative Influenza-Like Illness (fnILI) Z-Score 1 as a Proxy for Incidence and Mortality of COVID-19
SARS-CoV2 test shortages preclude implementation of a robust surveillance system in the US. Mirza et al. used the derivative influenza-negative influenza-like illness (fnILI) z-score from the CDC as a proxy for incident cases and disease-specific deaths to determine the burden of disease. They report that, for every unit increase of fnILI z-score, the number of…
Assessing suppression strategies against epidemic outbreaks like COVID-19: the SPQEIR model
This new extended epidemic SEIR model quantifies distinct measures by comparing several suppression approaches and potential exit strategies that may be used during lockdown to revive the economy while keeping the pandemic under control. The authors conclude that; while rapid and strong lock-down is an effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of other strategies such…
April 24, 2020
The potential health care costs and resource use associated with COVID-19 in the United States
Bartsch et al developed a Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the burden COVID-19 will impose on the US health care system. The model represented the U.S. population and what could happen to each person who gets infected with SARS-CoV-2, predicting that a single symptomatic COVID-19 infection would cost a median of $3,045 in direct…
Modest effects of contact reduction measures on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in 2 the most affected European countries and the US
The authors analyzed the dynamics of new SARS-CoV-2 infection and death cases to estimate the daily reproduction numbers (Rt) and the effectiveness of control measures in the most affected European Countries and the US. They report that calculating Rt based on both the daily number of infections and deaths provides a more reliable estimates than…
Evidence-based, cost-effective interventions to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid systematic review
Juneau et al provide a comprehensive summary of the evidence on SARS-CoV-19 epidemic control, with a focus on cost-effectiveness. They report on higher-quality evidence from studies that support the cost effectiveness of hand washing and face masks. For COVID-19: (1) social distancing is effective but costly, especially when adopted late and (2) adopting as early…
April 23, 2020
Sustaining Social Distancing Policies to Prevent a Dangerous Second Peak of COVID-19 Outbreak
Projections made from SEIR epidemic model suggest that, even when infection rates appear to be slowing down or decreasing, prematurely relaxing social distancing policies produces a severe second peak far worse than the first. The study suggests that a longer-term initial period of restrictive social distancing coupled with a gradual reduction in the severity of…
DECLINE IN GLOBAL TRANSMISSION RATES OF COVID-19
Using a deterministic-stochastic hybrid model, Romero-Severson et al found a declining transmission rate in 42 of the 51 examined countries, suggesting that global scale social distancing efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19 are effective and need to be strengthened or maintained. This study indicates that outbreaks can grow rapidly if social distancing measures are…
April 20, 2020
Early prediction of mortality risk among severe COVID-19 patients using machine learning
Using available clinical data, Hu et al developed a machine learning model to predict the outcomes of COVID-19 patients early on, in which the individual risk score based on the four selected variables (age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level) and the corresponding probability of death can be used to assess the…
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