Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
February 3, 2021
Age Groups That Sustain Resurging COVID-19 Epidemics in the United States
As of October 2020, SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the US was estimated to be largely driven by individuals between 20-49 years of age, with at least 65 of every 100 infections originating from this age group. Using cell phone mobility data to reconstruct contact patterns, a Bayesian contact-and-infection model was used to analyze age-specific mobility trends…
February 2, 2021
Under What Circumstances Could Vaccination Offset the Harm from a More Transmissible Variant of SARS-COV-2 in NYC Trade-Offs Regarding Prioritization and Speed of Vaccination
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A transmission model calibrated to COVID-19 hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and deaths in New York City suggests that the introduction of a 56% more transmissible variant could triple the peak in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths and more than double cumulative infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by the end of February 2021. For…
February 1, 2021
The Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Outbreaks in the United States
A modeling study evaluating the impact of a 2-dose COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the US showed that over a period of 300 days, vaccinating 40% of the population in sequential priority groups reduced the overall attack rate from 9% (without vaccination) to 4.6%, with the greatest relative reductions among those aged 65 and older. Modeled…
January 29, 2021
Estimating Aerosol Transmission Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City Public Schools During Reopening
Using previously collected indoor air quality data from New York City public schools, Pavilonis et al. estimated the probability of in-classroom transmission to be 5% for student-to-student transmission, 14% for student-to-teacher transmission, and 20% for teacher-to-student transmission after the introduction of one infectious person into the classroom. Consistent mask wearing by both students and teachers…
Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Extending the interval between doses of the Moderna vaccine from 4 weeks to 9-12 weeks could prevent additional infections, hospitalizations, and deaths according to an agent-based model. However, there was no clear advantage for delaying the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines beyond the standard 3-week interval. This is largely attributable to…
January 26, 2021
Using Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and High Isolation of Asymptomatic Carriers to Contain the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A pandemic influenza model with COVID-19 parameters applied to a nursing home setting showed that the attack rate was more sensitive to identification and isolation of asymptomatic cases than implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Varying NPI levels from baseline to rigorous measures had no significant effect on attack rate in a scenario…
January 21, 2021
Quarantine and Testing Strategies in Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2: A Modelling Study
A modeling study found that a shortened quarantine period combined with RT-PCR and antigen testing among SARS-CoV-2 exposed contacts could avert as much transmission as a 14-day quarantine period. In the baseline scenario where 67% of index cases adhere to self-isolation and 50% of exposed contacts adhere to quarantine, a 14-day quarantine period was estimated…
January 19, 2021
Optimal SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Allocation Using Real-Time Seroprevalence Estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts
Vaccine allocation models parametrized to the seroprevalence estimates of Rhode Island and Massachusetts show that allocating >75% of the vaccine supply to individuals ≥70 years old optimally reduces total cumulative deaths through mid-2021. Although not explicitly modelled, allocating a majority of the supply to other high-risk groups will yield the same effect. Vaccinating seronegative individuals…
Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Mitigation Strategies on a University Campus Using an Agent-Based Network Model
A SARS-CoV-2 transmission model parametrized to the University of California San Diego showed that reducing on-campus housing occupancy to single residents and implementing a hybrid instruction format (only 12% of sections in-person) with a class size cap of 50 could substantially reduce the basic reproduction number, R0. However, the addition of masking and physical distancing…
January 15, 2021
Is Lockdown Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Progression?—A Cross-Country Comparative Evaluation Using Epidemiokinetic Tools
A comparison of lockdown measures and counts of COVID-19 cases across 9 countries using an SIR-based epidemic model found that lockdown policies were effective in reducing SARS CoV-2 infections. The models discerned two groups of countries. The first group included Sweden and the United States, which had either no lockdowns or abruptly ended lockdown policies…
Previous page Next page