Result for
Topic: Transmission
February 10, 2020
2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution
Time between diagnosis and death/recovery in addition to underreporting of cases will have tremendous spatiotemporal variation globally. Wuhan case fatality estimates are likely overestimated due to vast underreporting of mild and asymptomatic cases. Delayed identification of 2019-nCoV deaths outside of Wuhan could mean that case fatality estimated based on non-Wuhan cases underestimate true case fatality. …
Incorporating Human Movement Data to Improve Epidemiological Estimates for 2019-nCoV
Researchers developed a geo-stratified framework for estimating 2019-nCoV transmission dynamics in China, addressing underreporting and under-screening biases affecting Wuhan case counts. They estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.24 in Wuhan before the lockdown on Jan 23. Cao et al. (Feb 9, 2020). Incorporating Human Movement Data to Improve Epidemiological Estimates for 2019-nCoV. Pre Print…
February 7, 2020
2019-nCoV transmission through the ocular surface must not be Ignored
Ophthalmologists in China report a case 2019-nCoV that may have been caused by ocular infection (eyes). Infectious droplet transmission through the conjunctival epithelium was documented previously for SARS-CoV and the authors suggest that precautions should be taken to prevent similar transmission from 2019-nCoV patients. Lu et al. (Feb 6, 2020). 2019-nCoV transmission through the ocular…
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV
Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries for the potential importation of 2019-nCoV is evaluated. They use air travel data from affected Chinese provinces, the WHO International Health Regulation and Monitoring and Evaluation Framework, and the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries with the highest risk of importation tended to have moderate to high response capacity while…
February 6, 2020
Evidence and characteristics of human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV
Based on a review of 188 confirmed cases from Guangdong Province (China), Kang, et al. describe characteristics of human-to-human transmission. Average age was 49 years; half male. 158 cases (84%) had traveled to Hubei Province within 14 days of onset. Average duration of symptom onset to diagnosis was 5.4 days. 31 clusters accounting for 84…
February 4, 2020
Emergence of a novel coronavirus causing respiratory illness from Wuhan, China
Tang, et al. provide a brief synopsis of two Thai cases and a case from Japan, noting that these did not enter the specific “wet market” at the epicenter of the current epidemic and were not epi-linked to each other They go on to cite the non-specific symptoms identified among the early cases; the lack…
The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application
Incubation periods were assessed by Lauer, et al. based on 101 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure windows from outside Hubei province (other parts of China plus globally). Case were 62% male with a mean age of 52 years. Mean incubation period: 5.2 days (95% CI, 4.4, 6.0 days) 95% of persons developed symptoms within 10.5…
Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed
Science news reports that the NEJM article on asymptomatic transmission erred in describing the infected traveler from China as asymptomatic. Follow-up by regional authorities in Germany found that the traveler did have respiratory and other symptoms while in Germany. An update in the NEJM is expected soon. Kupferschmidt K (Feb 3, 2020, 5:30 PM) Study…
February 3, 2020
Reconciling early-outbreak preliminary estimates of the baseline reproductive number and its uncertainty: a new framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak
SW Park, et al. assess preliminary basic reproductive number (R0) estimates in several reported modeling approaches. They identify improved information on generation interval (time from when an individual is infected to when they infect another individual) as a key parameter to improve R0 estimates. The pooled estimate of R0 constructed using their defined approach is…
The digestive system is a potential route of 2019-nCov infection: a bioinformatics analysis based on single-cell transcriptomes
H Zhang, et al propose a potential digestive system route of transmission, based on gene expression data related to angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2) in human tissues from lung, esophagus, stomach, ileum, and colon. Among ACE2-expressing cells in the tissue types assessed, ACE2 expression was found to be highest in the ileum and colon. ACE2…
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