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Tag: modeling prediction
February 5, 2021
Comparative cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies in the USA: a modelling study
A mathematical model suggests that in communities where the SARS-CoV-2 is spreading rapidly, weekly testing coupled with a 2-week isolation period after a positive test is advisable. The authors assessed eight surveillance testing strategies that varied by testing frequency (from daily to monthly testing) and isolation period (1 or 2 weeks), compared with the status-quo…
January 29, 2021
Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] Extending the interval between doses of the Moderna vaccine from 4 weeks to 9-12 weeks could prevent additional infections, hospitalizations, and deaths according to an agent-based model. However, there was no clear advantage for delaying the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines beyond the standard 3-week interval. This is largely attributable to…
January 21, 2021
Quarantine and Testing Strategies in Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2: A Modelling Study
A modeling study found that a shortened quarantine period combined with RT-PCR and antigen testing among SARS-CoV-2 exposed contacts could avert as much transmission as a 14-day quarantine period. In the baseline scenario where 67% of index cases adhere to self-isolation and 50% of exposed contacts adhere to quarantine, a 14-day quarantine period was estimated…
January 15, 2021
Is Lockdown Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Progression?—A Cross-Country Comparative Evaluation Using Epidemiokinetic Tools
A comparison of lockdown measures and counts of COVID-19 cases across 9 countries using an SIR-based epidemic model found that lockdown policies were effective in reducing SARS CoV-2 infections. The models discerned two groups of countries. The first group included Sweden and the United States, which had either no lockdowns or abruptly ended lockdown policies…
January 13, 2021
Using Excess Deaths and Testing Statistics to Improve Estimates of COVID-19 Mortalities
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study combining historical and current mortality data, a statistical testing model, and an SIR epidemic model found that average excess deaths across the US were 13% higher than reported COVID-19 deaths. In some areas, such as New York City, the number of weekly deaths was about eight times higher than in…
January 8, 2021
SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms
A mathematical model estimates that 59% of all transmission of SARS-CoV-2 comes from asymptomatic cases, suggesting that strategies based on identifying and isolating symptomatic people will not control the pandemic. The model estimates that 35% of SARS-CoV-2 transmission comes from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never become symptomatic. Johansson et al. (Jan 7,…
January 5, 2021
How Vaccination and Contact Isolation Might Interact to Suppress Transmission of Covid-19 a DCM Study
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A dynamic causal model parametrized to the UK population suggests that 15 million people (roughly 50,000 per day) would need to be vaccinated by December 2021 and combined with enhanced contact tracing to achieve a 50% herd immunity threshold. With current rates of contact tracing, 24 million people (36% of the…
December 30, 2020
Chopping the Tail: How Preventing Superspreading Can Help to Maintain COVID-19 Control
Interventions that specifically target superspreading events while partially relaxing social distancing could be a viable alternative to blanket policies, according to a transmission model incorporating a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions parametrized to a variety of settings. Removing the top 1% of individual transmission rates (essentially, superspreading events that connect a single infectious person to large…
December 28, 2020
Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
[pre-print; not peer-reviewed] A mathematical modeling study for 3 regions in England estimated that the novel SARS-Co-V2 variant, VOC 202012/01, is 56% (range 50-74%) more transmissible than earlier strains. The analysis incorporated testing data and cell phone data to estimate population movements in order to assess for the contribution of behavioral change as an alternate…
December 21, 2020
The Challenges of the Coming Mass Vaccination and Exit Strategy in Prevention and Control of COVID-19 a Modelling Study
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study of potential vaccination scenarios in China, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, UK, and the US showed that there was a critical (minimum) vaccination coverage needed for each country to balance the discontinuation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) while avoiding a subsequent wave of infections, depending on effectiveness of NPIs. The authors concluded…
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