Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
December 10, 2020
Widespread Testing, Case Isolation and Contact Tracing May Allow Safe School Reopening with Continued Moderate Physical Distancing: A Modeling Analysis of King County, WA Data
Modeling based on King County, Washington State indicates that returning to a level of 75% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions between May 15-July 15 was projected to result in 350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining less than 45% of pre-COVID-19 physical interactions was required to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. A…
December 7, 2020
Quantifying the Impact of Test-Trace-Isolate-Quarantine (TTIQ) Strategies on COVID-19 Transmission
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A study modeling impacts of a test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) strategy on SARS-CoV-2 transmission showed that finding and isolating positive individuals quickly after symptom onset had the largest effects on reducing cases, and that contact tracing may mitigate suboptimal test coverage or delays. Overall, TTIQ was found to be effective in controlling epidemics with…
December 4, 2020
Positive Impact of Facility-Based Isolation of Mild COVID-19 Cases on Effectively Curbing the Pandemic: A Mathematical Modelling Study
A compartmental model simulating SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics projected that a facility-based isolation strategy with moderate capacity (5 beds per 10,000 total population) could avert 4.2 million new infections and 16,000 deaths in two months compared with home-based isolation, equivalent to relative reductions of 57% of new infections and 37% of deaths. Doubling bed capacity resulted in…
December 3, 2020
Awareness-Driven Behavior Changes Can Shift the Shape of Epidemics Away from Peaks and toward Plateaus, Shoulders, and Oscillations
Weitz et al. show that compared to more established models that predict a symmetric peak in COVID-19 cases and deaths, accounting for awareness-driven behavior in models better fit with the asymmetrical peaks observed in actual COVID-19 fatality data, which typically show a plateau after a peak. The authors suggest that their model highlights the potential…
Social Network-Based Strategies for Classroom Size Reduction Can Help Limit Outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 in High Schools. A Simulation Study in Classrooms of Four European Countries
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A simulation study of classroom based on longitudinal survey data collected from four European countries (n=507 classrooms, 12,291 students) found that while establishing student cohorts that minimize out-of-school contact between different cohorts would be most effective in preventing spread of SARS-CoV-2, cohorting by approximation of social networks also performed well. Network-based…
December 2, 2020
Model-Based Evaluation of the Impact of Noncompliance with Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Disease Control
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modeling study using an SEIRS model reported that more effective COVID-19 interventions would require a lower proportion of people to comply with them to achieve complete suppression of SARS-CoV-2 spread among US populations. For an intervention with 50% efficacy, at least 95% compliance is required; for an intervention with 70%…
A COVID-19 Transmission Model Informing Medication Development and Supply Chain Needs
[Preprint, not peer reviewed] A modified SEIR model using data from the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard estimated that 66% of global SARS-CoV-2 cases were asymptomatic; each symptomatic and asymptomatic case could infect 2 and 6 other people, respectively. 10% of cases were super-spreaders, who had a 2-fold higher risk of transmission rate than average….
December 1, 2020
The Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Outbreaks in the United States
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a model parametrized to US demographics and age-specific COVID-19 outcomes, vaccination with 40% coverage prioritizing healthcare workers and high-risk individuals and excluding children under 18 was shown to reduce the overall attack proportion from 7.1% to 1.6%. Vaccination also reduced adverse outcomes, with hospitalizations and deaths decreasing by 85% and…
November 30, 2020
Estimated Incidence of COVID-19 Illness and Hospitalization — United States, February–September, 2020
A simple probabilistic multiplier model estimating the societal and healthcare burdens of SARS-CoV-2 infections indicated that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. during February 27–September 30, 2020. Laboratory-confirmed infections that were reported were adjusted for potential under-detection based on testing practices and assay…
Which Policies Most Effectively Reduce SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Schools
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] An evaluation of policies to reduce in-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in New York City public schools simulated that the greatest reductions in transmission could be achieved through infection control measures (mask wearing, physical distancing, good indoor ventilation, hand washing); further reductions could be achieved through small rotating class cohorts, widespread testing at the…
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