Result for
Topic: Modeling and Prediction
February 4, 2020
2019-20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak: Intense surveillance is vital for preventing sustained transmission in new locations
Chances of sustained transmission from an introduced case are about 37% without surveillance and 0.5% with “intense surveillance.” Thompson RN (2020) Pre-print downloaded 3 Feb, 2020 at, https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.24.919159v1
Early dynamics of transmission and control of 2019-nCoV: a mathematical modelling study
In locations with “similar transmission potential as Wuhan,” three or more introduced cases will lead to a more than 50% chance of the infection becoming established in that locale Kucharski, et al. Pre-print downloaded 2 Feb, 2020 at, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.31.20019901v1
January 31, 2020
Breaking down of healthcare system: Mathematical modelling for controlling the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in Wuhan, China
Researchers estimated burden on isolation and intensive care units in Wuhan accounting for the effect of successful public health intervention and diagnosis rates. With a 50% diagnosis rate and in the absence of any public health intervention efforts, the number of infected cases is anticipated to exceed other reported estimates (as of Jan 31), producing…
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
Using available data, researchers estimated the number of cases that have already been exported from Wuhan to other Chinese cities and forecasted the spread within and outside of mainland China. They estimate an R0 of 2.69 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) and, as of Jan 25, 75,815 infections (95% CI: 37,304-130,330) in Wuhan alone. Findings suggest a…
January 30, 2020
Estimated effectiveness of traveller screening to prevent international spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Researchers aimed to quantify the effectiveness of traveler screening for 2019-nCoV. Even under ideal screening assumptions, around half of infected travelers are likely to be missed. Most missed cases are asymptomatic, undetectable, and unaware of their exposure. The paper offers helpful visuals to support decision making. An interactive Shiny App is available as well. Gostic…
Risk of 2019 novel coronavirus importations throughout China prior to the Wuhan quarantine
Using ground, rail, and air travel data, researchers estimated the risk of 2019-nCoV exportation from Wuhan to other Chinese cities prior to the enforced quarantine in Wuhan. Among other findings, the model identified several high-risk cities (due to transportation patterns) throughout China currently have undetected cases. Du et al. (Jan 30, 2020). Risk of 2019…
January 29, 2020
The incubation period of 2019-nCoV infections among travelers from Wuhan, China
Based on travel history and symptom onset of 34 confirmed cases detected outside of Wuhan during Jan 20-23, researchers estimated a mean incubation period of 5.8 days (95% CI, 4.6-7.9) with a range of 1.3-11.3 days. These cases were likely infected in Wuhan. Details for modeling the incubation period are included as well as a…
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
Researchers provide demographic characteristics, exposure history, and epidemic for 425 laboratory-confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV reported prior to Jan 22, 2020 divided over three time periods: cases with illness onset prior to Jan 1, onset Jan 1-Jan 11, and onset Jan 12 or after. Patients with earlier onset were more likely to report exposure to the…
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak.
Researchers modeled confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China from Jan 10-Jan 24. They estimated an R0 of 2.24-3.35. Zhao et al. (Jan 29, 2020). Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak. Pre-Print. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395
Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infection: A statistical analysis of publicly available case data
Using publicly available case data in official reports from government institutes, researchers used modelling techniques to estimate: Incubation period of 2-9 days with a median incubation period of 4-5 days. Median time from illness onset to hospitalization = 3 days Recommended length of isolation and quarantine should be at least 9 days. Median time delay…
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