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Tag: modeling prediction
October 12, 2020
Age-Targeted Dose Allocation Can Halve COVID-19 Vaccine Requirements
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] An age-structured mathematical model investigating age-specific allocation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines indicated that across 179 countries, the highest priority individuals for vaccination were typically those 30-59 years of age, based on their higher risk of infection and disease, and greater rates of contact. The model assumed that the vaccine would be 70%…
October 7, 2020
Updating Herd Immunity Models for the U.S. in 2020 Implications for the COVID-19 Response
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study found that accounting for variations in contact patterns throughout the US leads to a lower estimate of the threshold for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 compared to models that assume even mixing of populations. Sheils et al. (Oct 6, 2020). Updating Herd Immunity Models for the U.S. in 2020 Implications…
October 5, 2020
Community Venue Exposure Risk Estimator for the COVID-19 Pandemic
Sun et al. developed a probability model to estimate the county-level community exposure risk during the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. The model had three inputs: the real-time number of active and asymptomatic cases, the population in local communities, and the customer counts in public places. They reported that between April 1 and July 15,…
September 29, 2020
Excess Risk of COVID-19 to University Populations Resulting from In-Person Sporting Events
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study using a stochastic compartmental model showed that in-person sporting events on college campuses could increase COVID-19 cases among the campus community. Even when COVID-19 cases were controlled both on-campus and among the larger population from which visitors to campus were drawn, such events presented a risk to the community….
September 25, 2020
Modeling between-population variation in COVID-19 dynamics in Hubei, Lombardy, and New York City
A mathematical model suggests that targeted sheltering of specific age groups combined with adherence to physical distancing by the rest of the population may be sufficient to thwart a substantial fraction of infections and deaths. Physical distancing could be achieved by engaging in activities such as staggered work schedules, increasing spacing in restaurants and prescribing…
Quantifying the impact of quarantine duration on COVID-19 transmission
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] In a modeling study, quarantining an infected traced contact for 10 days was estimated to prevent 75-99% of their onward transmission. In the scenario of a contact being infected on a return flight, a 10 day quarantine was estimated to prevent 99% of onward transmission. Ashcroft et al. (Sept 25, 2020)….
September 23, 2020
Optimal Dynamic Prioritization of Scarce COVID-19 Vaccines
[Pre-print, not peer-reviewed] A modeling study reported that prioritizing a limited supply of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to certain population groups resulted in 17-18% fewer deaths, infections, and years of life lost compared to a non-prioritized strategy. The optimal strategies consistently prioritized older essential workers, though the model allowed the priority groups to vary over time. Optimal…
September 22, 2020
Immune Life History, Vaccination, and the Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 Years
Saad-Roy et al. used SIR(S) models to explore how the COVID-19 pandemic might unfold under different assumptions about how long immunity lasts to SARS-CoV-2 and how protective it is against re-infection and transmission. They use these models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future COVID-19 cases given different protective efficacy and duration…
September 21, 2020
Impact of University Re-opening on Total Community COVID-19 Burden
[Pre-print, not peer reviewed] A modeling study reported that university students returning to schools may contribute to increased community transmission of COVID-19, affecting at-risk members of the city community. This is supported by a scenario that if students engage in a 24% contact reduction compared to pre-COVID levels, the number of community infections would increase…
September 15, 2020
Estimation of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Ratio in a Large Urban Jail in the United States
In an SEIR model of a COVID-10 outbreak in a large US jail system, Puglisi et al. found that within 30 days, 6% of prisoners and 8% of staff will have symptomatic infections, predicting 5,695 cases, among whom there would be 3,388 symptomatic infections, 474 hospitalizations, and 34 deaths. Puglisi et al. (Sept 9, 2020)….
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